Best Value Picks At Each Position (2021 Fantasy Football)
Which QB, RB, WR and TE are the best value picks in 2021 Fantasy Football drafts?
In this article, I am going to take a look at the four main positions in fantasy football (QB, RB, WR, TE) and get into who I think is the best value in fantasy drafts. Current ADP is based on Half PPR scoring, 12 team leagues.
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QUARTERBACK (QB)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) - Current ADP QB12 (7.01)
It was a bit of a toss up between Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill as the best value QB in fantasy drafts, but I had to go with Stafford because he is being drafted a round later and is also surrounded by talented players. Stafford will have one of the best WR duos to target with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. He also has a solid but unspectacular TE in Tyler Higbee and a decent RB in Darrell Henderson. Of course, the Cam Akers injury is a bit of a blow for the Rams offense as a whole, but as I wrote in my previous article, I do not expect it to affect Stafford much.
A lot of managers are concerned with Stafford because he is getting older and is often dealing with an injury of some kind but, over the last 10 seasons, Stafford has only missed 8 games due to injury and all of those games came in 2019. Clearly, those injury concerns are greatly exaggerated.
I have Stafford as my QB14 in 4pt passing TD scoring, but he could easily blow my projections away and produce solid QB1 numbers. I have him projected to throw for 4647 yards, 31 TDs and 11 INTs which are great numbers, even if he is not going to do much in the running game. I am a big fan of the late round QB strategy so you can stack your team with RBs and WRs in the early rounds, but Stafford is a QB I am willing to take in the first 10 rounds.
RUNNING BACK (RB)
Gus Edwards (BAL) - Current ADP RB42 (9.01)
Edwards has been flying under the radar in fantasy drafts and I honestly have no idea why. With Mark Ingram now a member of the Houston Texans, it is no longer a 3 man backfield in Baltimore. Now, it is just J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards with Edwards as the RB2 on the best rushing team in the NFL. He is likely to get around 25-40% of the RB carries for the team, yet he is the 42nd RB off the board in Half PPR drafts. That is absolutely ridiculous to me.
Okay, I definitely understand why the Gus Bus is not the best pick in Half PPR and Full PPR leagues. He is not known for his pass catching ability and was only targeted 20 times over the last 2 seasons, but he is well worth the late round pick in Standard leagues. In fact, he is my RB36 in Standard scoring, making him an RB3. I project Edwards to have 845 rushing yards, 137 receiving yards, 7 total TDs and 2 fumbles. It is not out of the question for Gus to flirt with 1000 total yards.
I believe Edwards has the potential to end up as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3, so scooping up a player like that in the 9th round is absolutely worth it. Plus, if something were to happen to Dobbins, then you may have a high-end RB2 on your hands but, even with Dobbins in the fold, Gus Edwards still looks like a solid FLEX option.
WIDE RECEIVER (WR)
Antonio Brown (TB) - Current ADP WR41 (9.02)
Brown is another player whose ADP has me scratching my head. Yes, he may be getting older but there is no doubt that the talent is still there and he has the GOAT throwing passes his way in Tom Brady. It is a bit of a controversial take, but I think Brown is the WR to own in Tampa Bay. Last season, if he played in all 16 games, Brown was on pace for 161 targets, 106 receptions, 1403 yards and 10 TDs. Sure, Chris Godwin missed a few games and Mike Evans was battling through injury for most of the season but, even if you lower those projected totals by 20%, they are still very good numbers.
Antonio Brown is my WR29 in Half PPR and I have him projected for 96 receptions, 1026 yards and 8 TDs. If you can get those kinds of stats from a WR going in the 9th round, you have to be out of your mind to pass on him. The Tampa Bay pass catchers are relatively unchanged entering 2021 and Tom Brady will be fully healthy this season, so there is no reason to believe that these numbers are not obtainable for Brown. He should have no problem producing as a WR3 and could very well end up as a WR2 when it is all said and done.
TIGHT END (TE)
Tyler Higbee (LAR) - Current ADP TE14 (9.10)
I will admit that Higbee is a player I was not high on until recently, but he has the potential to outperform his ADP tremendously. It would not be surprising if Higbee ends up with over 100 targets this season. Over the last 2 seasons, he has averaged 79 targets per 16 games while Gerald Everett has averaged 67 targets per 16 games. With Gerald Everett now in Seattle, there are plenty of vacant targets to go around in Los Angeles. If even just 50% of those vacant targets go to Higbee, then he will be in for a great season and will likely finish as a TE1.
But not only will Higbee’s target totals likely go up this year, so will the quality of the targets. There is no doubt in my mind, and pretty much everyone else’s, that Matthew Stafford is a massive step up from Jared Goff. Nothing against Goff, but Stafford has better arm talent and has proven that he could be successful in any system, so I expect Stafford to get the most out of Higbee.
Tyler Higbee is only my TE17 in Half PPR, but expect that to change once I update my rankings in August. I project Higbee to put up career highs across the board with 75 receptions, 825 yards and 8 TDs. I expect big things from Higbee this season and think he could finish as a top 8 TE. In my opinion, he is the best late round TE to target and should have a lot of value in the 9th and 10th round.