Undervalued: Myles Gaskin (2021 Fantasy Football)

@JPnightmare

Welcome to Undervalued, where I highlight one player who I believe should be drafted much earlier than his current ADP. In this edition, I will be taking a look at a RB who is flying under the radar in Miami.

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Myles Gaskin (RB - MIA)

One Man Backfield

When the Dolphins hired Brian Flores as their head coach two seasons ago, many fantasy managers expected the Dolphins to implement a New England Patriots style RBBC which would essentially render all their RBs useless. Luckily, that was not the case. Last season, when he was healthy, Flores’ guy was Myles Gaskin, their 7th-round pick from 2019. Gaskin was a revelation last season for the Dolphins. He started the year 3rd on the depth chart behind Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, but quickly cemented himself as the Dolphins’ top back. 

Gaskin missed 6 games due to a knee injury, but in the 10 games he appeared in, Gaskin averaged 14.2 rushing attempts, 58.4 rushing yards, 4.1 receptions, 38.8 receiving yards and 0.5 TDs. Saying he was efficient would be an understatement. Over a full 16 game schedule, Gaskin would have had 227 rushing attempts for 937 rushing yards and 5 TDs to go along with 66 receptions for 621 receiving yards and 3 TDs. He averaged 12.3 FPPG in Standard (14th among RBs), 14.4 FPPG in Half PPR (12th among RBs) and 16.4 FPPG in Full PPR (13th among RBs). The stats prove that Gaskin was a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 last season, so why are so many people sleeping on him in 2021?

Improved Offense

The Dolphins offense as a whole improved by signing WR Will Fuller in free agency and drafting WR Jaylen Waddle. They also addressed the offensive line. The Dolphins lost Ted Karras in free agency and traded away Ereck Flowers, but they signed D.J. Fluker and Jermaine Eluemunor, and even drafted Liam Eichenberg and Lamel Coleman to help out in that area. Tua is also expected to take a big step forward this season after having another offseason to gel with his team. At RB, they added Malcolm Brown in free agency and drafted Gerrid Doaks. All of these additions might make it seem like Gaskin will get less touches this season, but I do not believe that is the case.

An improved passing offense likely means an improved ground game as there will be less stacked boxes for a small RB like Gaskin to deal with. The Dolphins struggled to throw the ball last season, averaging 233.5 passing yards per game, good enough for 20th in the NFL. In the rushing game, the Dolphins did not fare any better, averaging 105.5 rushing yards per game, 22nd in the NFL. None of those stats are impressive, but assuming the offense takes a step forward, which they should, I expect the Dolphins to at least finish in the 15th-18th range in both passing and rushing in 2021. If Miami could average around 250 passing yards and 120 rushing yards this season, it would benefit all of their players for fantasy, not just Gaskin.

My Projections

I currently have Gaskin projected as the RB16 in Standard, the RB13 in Half PPR and the RB10 in Full PPR, making him a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 depending on the scoring format. On the ground, Gaskin is projected for 992 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles. Through the air, he is projected to have 70 receptions for 660 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs. These numbers would have been good enough to make him the RB14 in Standard in FPPG, the RB12 in Half PPR in FPPG and the RB13 in Full PPR in FPPG last season, which is exactly where he finished in 2020. There is no reason to believe Gaskin will not put up nearly identical numbers in 2021.

ADP Evaluation

According toFantasyPros, Myles Gaskin is ranked 23rd in Standard and 22nd in both Half PPR and Full PPR. He is going anywhere between the 5th and 6th round in 12 team half PPR mock drafts, around the same time as other RBs such as Kareem Hunt (CLE), James Robinson (JAX), Javonte Williams (DEN) and Mike Davis (ATL). While I am also high on Mike Davis, who should be the lead back in Atlanta, Gaskin is just the total package and incredible value at his current ADP. If he is available in the 5th or 6th round of your draft, you could do much worse than taking a chance on Gaskin. No one has ever won a fantasy championship by drafting conservatively and Myles Gaskin could absolutely be labeled a league-winner by the end of the 2021 fantasy football season.